This dataset provides regional-scale mapping of coastal erosion hazards for the New South Wales (NSW) coastline. It represents the modelled range of potential beach erosion for baseline conditions (2020) and projected future periods at decadal intervals through to 2150, under a range of sea level rise (SLR) scenarios associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5 medium confidence, and SSP5-8.5 low confidence).
The present-day (2020) hazard extents relate to storm erosion volume and any existing sediment budget imbalance. The future (2030-2150) hazard extents represent the impacts of these two processes, along with the migration of the shoreline due to SLR and local sediment movements that vary between beaches. To address uncertainty in present and future coastal processes and shoreline responses, the erosion model was run using a statistical sampling approach for each scenario and forecast year to simulate different combinations of the driving processes that contribute to erosion. This approach enables the mapping of potential shoreline position as percentiles or cumulative probabilities of the distribution of hazard projections (50, 90, 99, and 99.9%). These are respectively equivalent to the relative likelihood of erosion exceeding each mapped position within the modelled range – i.e. 50%, 10%, 1%, and 0.1%.
The methodology considers variability in the morphology and drivers of coastal change between individual beaches while maintaining a consistent, state-wide approach. The mapping supports comparative exposure assessment and prioritisation of adaptation needs at regional and state scales. As a regional-scale assessment, it does not incorporate all local-scale influences and fine-scale variability, and it is not intended for site-specific erosion risk assessment, and where additional details may be needed.
Further details on the methodology are available in the NSW Coastal Erosion and Inundation Hazards and Exposure Assessment – Technical Report, 2025. Information on data structure, file naming conventions, folder organisation, shapefile attributes, and layer descriptions is provided in the accompanying ReadMe documentation.