The 2018 Australian Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

This report describes the 2018 Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Australia (henceforth PTHA18). The PTHA18 estimates the frequency with which tsunamis of any given size occur in deep waters around the Australian coastline. To do this it simulates hundreds of thousands of possible tsunami scenarios from key earthquake sources in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and models the frequency with which these occur. To justify the PTHA18 methodologies a significant fraction of the report is devoted to testing the tsunami scenarios against historical observations, and comparing the modelled earthquake rates against alternative estimates. Although these test provide significant justification for the PTHA18 results, there remain large uncertainties in “how often” tsunamis occur at many sites. This is due to fundamental limitations in present-day scientific knowledge of how often large earthquakes occur.

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Published (Metadata Record) 03/03/2026
Last updated 03/03/2026
Organisation Australian Federal Government
License License Not Specified
Update Frequency Unknown