The ability to provide rapid and accurate estimates of damage following an earthquake
is a key priority in seismic risk research, and is central to efficient disaster management.
Internationally, several groups are dedicated to achieving these rapid earthquake loss
estimates, including SAFER (Seismic eArly warning For EuRope), WAPMERR (World
Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction) and the automated
alarm system 'PAGER' (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response)
being developed by the USGS. These agencies aim to provide real-time loss estimates
following earthquake events using an empirical approach: historical earthquake data are
used to estimate building fragilities, i.e. the relationship between ground shaking
intensity and observed structural damage to buildings, which are then used in
conjunction with maps of shaking intensity (shake maps) to provide loss estimates. In
Australia, this approach is not practicable as there are few historical examples of large,
damaging earthquakes in populated areas that can be used as benchmarks for loss
estimates.